We track four types of crime across the year as an indicator of how trends are changing. We look at burglary, vehicle crime, shoplifting and bike theft; these acts can be prevented with CCTV and intruder alarms from us at P&R Alarms, and good security practices from homeowners, tenants, vehicle owners and business owners.
Our Q3 round-up used estimated figures for August, as those numbers had not been released at the time of writing. We have since received the accurate figures and will use them in this report.
Burglary rose a little between Q3 and Q4; there were 4,165 incidents in Q3 and 4,201 in Q4. We estimated 4,148 for Q3. This represents 12 burglaries more per month on average between the periods, which is not a significant increase. When you look at the monthly rates, however, there is a general downward trend across the year. There was, however, a spike in October which saw 1,577 burglaries reported – the highest monthly total since January 2024. By December, burglaries were at 1,302, the lowest since May 2020.
This is great news for homeowners and renters alike, and proof that increased police presence in communities is showing to have an effect on crime. There may also be an economic influence, as we expect to see burglary rates rise in the winter with the promise of big purchases for Christmas, and the added cover of early darkness. With fewer people having money spare for buying lavish gifts, perhaps burglary was a less attractive option when balancing risk and reward?
Vehicle crime rates dropped as well, and this is a trend we have seen for some month thanks to West Midland Police’s laser focus on chop shops, which drive a significant demand for car parts. The total number of vehicle crimes in Q3 was 7,774 (less than our estimate of 8,138) compared to the Q4 figure of 6,770. That’s a reduction of over 1,000 crimes over the three month period.
This shows that demand is falling for stolen cars, and that vehicle owners are taking good security measures to prevent their cars being targeted. There has been a general downward trend from 2022, when the monthly figures were regularly over 3,000. Vehicle crime in December 2024 sat at just 2,071, the lowest since August 2020.
Shoplifting has been a serious issue for retailers for many months, and the threat of violence towards retail workers has compounded the issue as repeat offenders know they won’t be challenged by shop floor staff. The rates of shoplifting in Q3 were 8,776 (we estimated 8,750) and this actually fell in Q4 to 8,354. In December, the month we expected to see shoplifting peak, only 2,425 incidents were reported, the lowest since June.
A drop of 432 incidents reported between the third and fourth quarters of the year is a great improvement, and we hope to see these numbers continue to fall thanks to the efforts of Operation Fearless and the community policing model. A national and regional focus on shoplifting, especially in looking at the impact of organised gang activity and persistent offenders, is starting to pay dividends.
Bicycle theft dropped over the quarter as we expected, in line with the weather changing. In Q3 there were 640 bike thefts and just 445 in Q4. December saw just 105 incidents reported which is the lowest number since February 2021.
It is generally good news for the last quarter of 2024, with drops or stability in the rates of these crimes. Using intruder alarms for residential and business properties, plus CCTV that covers your car, and the exterior of a home makes it and the contents less of a temptation to criminals. That said, when crime rates drop people can be a little lax with security, so don’t underestimate the threat of burglary, shoplifting or vehicle crime. As the available targets decrease in number, thieves can become desperate, and this is where the danger lies. If your security isn’t as tight as it could be, call us today and we can help to get that sorted.