It’s time to look at the crime statistics for the end of 2023, and see what the trends are in our four areas of concern; burglary, vehicle crime, shoplifting and bike theft. Between the second and third quarters of 2023, we saw an overall increase in the rates of these crimes, with the exception of vehicle crime. This tallies with the effects of summer and heat on these offences, and the pattern across Q4. The difference between the third and fourth quarters is interesting, as is the comparison with the same period last year.
Starting with burglaries, which were on an upward trajectory, we see that over the final three months of the year there was a general downward pattern across that time period, though the total numbers still represented an increase quarter to quarter. With a high of 1,884 burglaries in October, dropping to 1,819 in December the numbers are still much higher than the monthly figures for the rest of the year, and in a similar, slightly lower place than the comparable figures last year.
Overall, this is typical of the burglary patterns we see across the year and the slight decrease in numbers over the three months is slightly encouraging, but not very significant when taken in the context of the normal seasonal fluctuations. We expected to see this sort of pattern due to the cost of living impact, as well as the lure of Christmas presents tempting thieves to break and enter.
Vehicle crime saw a slight uptick in Q4 – 8,398 crimes compared to 8,193 in Q3. Again, the monthly figures saw a decreasing pattern (2,988 in October and 2,644 in December), while the actual numbers were higher when comparing the quarterly figures.
If we compare the December monthly figures from 2022 with 2023, we can see a significant drop from 3,241 to 2,644, suggesting that the overall trends are seeing a decrease, thanks in part to the renewed police focus on chop shops and organised gangs. We always expect a slight increase in vehicle crime in the winter months due to weather conditions providing the ideal conditions for “frost-jacking”.
Shoplifting is a particular area of concern, but one where we know that the new policing model is having an impact on repeat offenders especially. It will come as no surprise, when comparing December 2022 with 2023, to see a huge jump from 1,328 to 1,927. The Q4 total was 6,200, a slight drop from the Q3 total of 6,351 and this slight decrease in numbers was seen across the three months too.
Although the numbers may be starting to come down, they are descending from a great height; the Q4 figures for 2022 were 4,062 incidents of shoplifting. This means that well over 2,000 extra incidents occurred in Q4 of 2023 compared to the previous year. This is significant, and we’ll focus on shoplifting in a separate report.
Lastly, bike thefts are following the expected downward pattern. This is a highly seasonal crime driven by the supply and demand during nice weather. This area of crime experienced the same generally downward trajectory as the others when looking at the monthly figures for the period, and the overall quarterly numbers show a decrease too. In Q4 of last year 567 bike thefts were recorded, a drop from the Q3 numbers of 687.
Comparing the rates of bike theft year on year, we see some stability, with the Q4 figures for 2022 sitting at 589, just a few more than in 2023. We expect to see this sort of seasonal change in these figures, but we’re not significantly cheered by the small drop year on year.
As we journey through 2024, we will continue to keep you up to date on the crime trends in the areas where our security services can make the biggest impact for you, our valued customers.