Last month we brought you good news about the crime statistics for our local area over a year, and now we’re back with our regular quarterly round up of crime trends for more recent times. This time we have the figures from the first three months of 2024. The months of January, February and March were definitely wet, and just like the heat, persistent rain can affect crime rates too.
There has been a wealth of research into the effects of weather on crime, and it won’t come as any surprise to learn that it’s often contradictory. While hot weather can lead to an increase in burglaries and vehicle crime as people leave windows open, rain and storms makes people more likely to forget about wallets and valuables left on view in cars, and heavy storms can mask the noise of burglaries.
One crime we know the weather has a big effect on is bike theft – numbers always rise in the summer because of supply and demand. The persistent wet weather we’ve had means fewer people are cycling, so there are fewer units available to steal. Between the last quarter of 2023 and the first of 2024 there has been a drop of 147 bike thefts, a number that represents a full month’s worth of stolen cycles (January 2024 saw 146 bikes go missing). The total for Q1 of this year was 420 cycle thefts, with the trend decreasing as the month went on, to just 131 in March. The same month last year saw 153 incidents, so we can confidently ascribe the drop this year to the weather.
Burglaries dropped between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024; 4,554 incidents of house breaking were recorded between January and March with the trend month-on-month showing a significant slowdown. The figures for February (1,387) and March (1,379) were the lowest since May 2021, and we know that burglary figures during lockdowns reached record lows because people were at home more.
This drop (945) between quarters suggests that not only is the weather keeping burglars at home, but the local policing model adopted by West Midlands Police is working. Granted, no-one wants to lurk about behind a bin in the pouring rain, but it’s even less of an attractive option when the local cops are never far away, and likely to catch you in the act if you’re noticed. It will be interesting to see whether we get any summer weather, and what effect this has on burglary rates.
Shoplifting has been the focus of our local force for a few months now, and we’ve been glad to see that several repeat offenders have been brought to account. Despite the hard work by the police, rates remained generally stable with a drop of just 44 incidents between the quarters. We’re used to the cost of living crisis being a driver for this type of crime, but the weather may well have played a role here.
When the weather is rubbish, people opt for shopping as an indoor leisure activity rather than having days out. This means there’s more cover for shoplifters among the crowds, and more chance of first-time offenders having a go. If we look at public order offences across the same period, we can see a drop in those offences while shoplifting remains high; petty crime committed by teenagers in groups falls into both these categories, so it may be that they have refocused their criminal activity from fighting to stealing.
Lastly, vehicle crime is on the rise. Although the police have been tackling chop shops with laser focus over the last few months, we think the weather may be a factor here too. If you’re rushing from the car into your home or the shops it’s easy to forget to lock it while you juggle bags, umbrellas and keys. This provides thieves with opportunities to steal the vehicle or the contents, so a rise of 209 incidents from quarter to quarter isn’t surprising.
The trends across the months for car crime give a slightly brighter picture, with a drop in February but an overall slowdown. January saw a spike of 3,023 but when we look at the numbers across several months things seem relatively stable.
We recommend residents of the West Midlands remain vigilant against these and other forms of crime. As the weather improves we will see the normal seasonal fluctuations in crime rates, but we have faith in our force to be able to bring the trends down to much better levels over time.
Always set your intruder alarm, ensure your CCTV cameras aren’t dirty or obstructed, and conduct regular visual checks of your property perimeter and access routes to ensure any issues are dealt with before they become a security risk. We hope to bring you more good news about the April to June period when figures are released.